NASA’s defunct 1300-pound satellite set to fall to Earth March 10-11. The satellite, known as Van Allen Probe A, was sent into space by NASA in August 2012 as a mission to study the Earth’s radiation belts. Originally intended for two years, the satellite spent much longer than planned collecting scientific data before running out of power in August 2019.
According to experts, the satellite is predicted to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere at roughly 7:45 PM EST on March 10, with a margin of error of up to 24 hours. Based on Space Force tracking data, the probe could come down within 100 miles of land.
While it has been in space for nearly 14 years, scientists say the mission’s 600-kilogram probe only ceased functionality when it ran out of fuel in 2019. Since that time, an increase in solar activity over the past couple of years has inflated Earth’s atmosphere, thus creating a denser orbit for the satellite to travel through, allowing for a more rapid descent.
Experts estimate that the majority of the probe will burn up as it plummets toward Earth. However, there is a slim chance that some fragments will survive its entry and reach the ground. The odds of injury to the public have been estimated at 1 in 4,200.
Scientists have credited the Van Allen Probes’ data with improving the understanding of space weather and the effects space radiation within Earth’s magnetosphere has on satellites, communication systems, and power grids.
Space agencies continue to monitor the satellite’s entry toward the Earth, however, experts suggest that in most cases when debris re-enters the atmosphere it usually lands in the ocean or an unpopulated area.
