Over the last month, there has been a round of tenders whereby several Western companies, including Vitol, Trafigura and TotalEnergies secured contracts to supply the fuel to Libya, which means that dependence upon non-Western suppliers like Russia should decrease dramatically. It is believed that Libya’s state-run National Oil Corporation (NOC) switched to a Western supply model based on Mediterranean-located refineries to secure more consistent supplies.
Data obtained from industry analysts indicates that Libyan imports of fuel from Russia fell dramatically from approximately 56,000 barrels a day in 2024-25 to around 5,000bpd in 2026, a 91 percent drop in the flow of Russian products. Imports are now primarily sourced from Mediterranean refineries, which have received them through Western traders from Italy.
Specialists in the oil industry argue this move highlights a wider ambition by the government of Libya to continue with modernizing its post-Gaddafi oil industry, which is still failing to supply enough refining capacity to the country and relies heavily on the imports of refined fuel. With Western companies being granted tenders, Libya will now use firms that have reliable logistics networks and have refineries located near Mediterranean suppliers.
It is argued that this shift in supply has important geopolitical ramifications and will see less Russian control within the Libyan oil market; dependence upon Western oil companies will hopefully also open up the sector to more investment and stability within Libya due to the increased connections that the state will be capable of building with both European and American companies. It is stated that the effectiveness of this policy will, of course, depend on future stability within Libya and its ability to continue with developments within the country’s oil sector.
