Nigeria and Indonesia Poised to Overtake Ghana in Cocoa

Market analysts warn that Ghana’s long-held position as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer is under severe pressure, with declining yields caused by aging trees, disease, adverse weather and other structural challenges allowing competitors such as Nigeria, Indonesia and Ecuador to close the gap.

Ghana, which for decades sat comfortably behind Côte d’Ivoire in global cocoa output, has seen fluctuations in production in recent seasons. Poorer harvests and disruptions in deliveries have contributed to output levels at multi-year lows, prompting concerns that the country may soon be overtaken by producers expanding their capacity.

Analysts point to climate change and erratic rainfall as major factors weighing on Ghana’s cocoa yields. Excessive rain can increase disease incidence, while changing weather patterns including drought and heat stress undermine flowering and pod development on cocoa farms, reducing bean production. Combined with a lack of investment to renew aging cocoa trees, these conditions have undercut productivity.

In the 2023/24 season, Ghana’s cocoa board delayed deliveries of roughly 370,000 tones due to a sharp drop in output to decades-low levels, reflecting the scale of the decline from prior seasons. Officials attributed the slump to poor harvests, tree disease and the impact of illegal mining activities that have damaged farmland.

At the same time, other countries have been bolstering their production prospects. Indonesia and Ecuador both already significant producers are seen by traders and analysts as potential challengers for Ghana’s second-place ranking, with projections suggesting they could surpass Ghana’s output in the coming seasons if current trends continue. Nigeria has also shown interest in increasing its cocoa footprint, targeting global cocoa markets with expanded exports.

Ghana’s cocoa sector has sought to address structural issues by raising farmgate prices and adopting reforms to support farmers, but delayed payments and financing bottlenecks have strained the supply chain and frustrated growers. Thousands of farmers have reported unpaid earnings months after delivering cocoa, hindering their ability to invest in maintenance of their farms including rejuvenation of old trees and purchase of inputs.

Economists and industry observers say that overtaking Ghana’s cocoa production position would have symbolic and economic significance. Cocoa accounts for a substantial portion of export earnings and rural employment in Ghana, making the crop a cornerstone of the economy. Losing the No. 2 spot to competitors like Indonesia or Ecuador would mark a historic shift in the global cocoa landscape.

Efforts to reverse the trend include government-backed initiatives to rehabilitate old cocoa farms and improve processing capacity, but experts caution that long-term investment, climate-resilient crops and stronger value-chain support are critical if Ghana is to retain its global ranking. How these measures translate into production growth in the coming seasons will be closely watched by markets and policymakers worldwide.